Recession, at last!

Ladies and Gentlemen, after so many announcements by those who make of tarots their main meter of judgement for economic forecasts, the US recession is now near. Just to keep up with those who like numbers I would say that chances are now around 75%.

There are still doubts about the possible length of it but I think that thanks to the Asian economies, China first, it might be not as long as many fear. The kind of recession I can see is a technical one, not the tragedy a few foresee. It will impact the economies of Europe and China but concerning the latter I think that it will just a shaving off part of the forecast growth by a max 2% as internal consumption in Mainland China is still going up. Europe? Well... Eyes on Germany. As far as Italy is concerned the recession would mean nothing as we are a pretty conservative (and shameless) country showing always very contained growths (if any). So, nothing to fear about it. We normally fall from the first step of the ladder but our politicians tend to blame recessions to cover their helpless inability in running the country,

So whose fault is this recession to come? Fed, Banks, White House, Americans? The choice is wide and they all have their part of blame but I point my finger at the futility and the unjustified growth of economies since 2001. There has been a growth based on nothing. Shares values have been inflated, housing costs incredibly high thanks to bank who didn't know what to do with their money... the same way we created the Asian crisis we have created this one. One of the few times events repeat themselves. Unfortunately, even this time will be the less wealthy ones to pay for it.

Heads down! I am sure we will come out early as banks have already cleared their rubbish bins with the excuse of subprime crisis, but in a smarted way Neapolitans do these days. Without showing that subprime is only part of the problem.

Tata from cold and white Beijing!


PS - I have been asked why I am now convinced that we are close to recession while until my last intervention I was not so in line with others... Simple... there is an article I published here where it explains the main variables in the dynamic of economic growth. Some of those parameters are no longer signalling positive or neutral economical pattern. That is one answer. Second answer. The package that the White House is putting in place to avoid recession is far too little and too late. This time Americans have been hit badly with the housing crisis and does he, the President, really think that giving 800 dollars to each American tax payer would make the economy grow? Does he really think that with 800 dollars he can avoid a period of negative gowth due to debts more than consumer crisis? I am sure that even the Americans will be paying off a bit of a debt or putting them in their bank account...

The other consideration concerns the elections... Do we really think that the congress will pass a package that, if it works, will be added to the incumbent president? Let's not forget that the congress is in the hands of the opposition...

Last and not least... Bush's surprise trip in the Middle East, especially the one in Saudi Arabia. After a period of cold relationship, all of a sudden Bush seemed to be his father and show recognition and friendship to the Saudi family. It's obvious that the trip there has been a business journey to close some deals and get some oil on the cheappy. coincidentally, Gordon Brown has been seen around here asking for money. Yes, he has told Beijing that Britain welcomes Sovereign Funds... And that is another sign...

But the main factor is... the data. the figures show a slowdown and I wouldnt' be surprised if we are already in a recession. And, panic is doing the rest... Panic, excessive panic can lead to complete loss of confidence. And we are at that stage

BREAKING NEWS
On Jan 22nd Fed cuts discount rate and Fed Funds rates by 3/4%... We can now wait for BoE and ecb... While something will certainly come from PRC Central Bank. I am sure that the market will not give a toss about it...