Losing virginity at 60

China has discovered what in Europe has been known for decades: the power of media. China is going through the phase all Europeans have gone through once at least: a global grieving for a mass emotional event. The earthquake in Sichuan has shown how powerful the media can be and how influenced people are by the images breaking in the households, shopping malls and office, 24 hours a day. The heartbreaking pictures of mothers crying the loss of their children or the images of the kids taken out of the rubble still alive, are on everybody's minds. China is not the same anymore: China lost its virginity and like us, Europeans, going from virgin to slut it doesn't take much and, inevitably, this will built the same cynicism we have developed in the Western world. When I was a child there was a live event, the first of a series of televised tragedies, about of a little child, Alfredino, that fell in a well and took days to die without anybody managing to get him out of there. Days and nights of misery for millions of Italians, the pain becoming show, people not going to work to stay in front of TV, jesters, midgets, acrobats, inventors, engineers: everybody wanted to be there whether to help or to watch this sad and sadistic show being broadcast from Vermicino, Rome, all over Italy. Alfredino Ciampi, this blond little angel, was only the first of these private pain become public. Think of another event, a short quake that killed students in a school in the small region of Molise: solidarity produced millions of euro that would have been enough to rebuild a full village a few times rather than a school. And there are still investigations about the funds that have disappeared... How about the stories coming from America, about 9/11?
The woman that for solidarity slept with dozens of fire fighters. Or the solidarity marathons that every year take place on TV screens in many countries and produces billions of euros for the research, just because all sad cases are broadcast.

China has joined the rest of the world. I know people that are now planning to adopt a child. People that never thought about having a child, perhaps. A bit like nobody would have take a puppy but seen an abandoned one on TV they are wiling to get one. Or the other person I know that has decided to look for an extra job to send money to Sichuan. These are only cases I know but I am sure that there are many extreme cases showing how hard this tragedy has hit China. The country of the million flags, these days has been the country of the Half Mast flags. China is shown the human face to the world and while the Burma event had no impact on Chinese people, the death of people living in the same country has produced an effect that nobody will ever forget. Most Chinese are dressing in black these days and the 3 minute stoppage for remembrance was the first time in the history of this country. I bet it would not be last because this tragedy has had, accompanied by all the world polemics for the Tibet, the power of unify China and make their identity even stronger.

The TV's send images 24 hours a day and talk about single cases and hails the workers and the government leaders via some films that could well be considered propaganda if there wasn't the good intention of showing the the world that Chinese love their children too.

Sad to say that the earthquake can work as a mitigation towards China's authorities stance about Tibet at the eyes of the world. And it's ironic that Sichuan is one of those regions fighting for independence, exactly like Tibet, but i have never heard any westerner taking on the parts of Sichuan people or even the Uighur population for independence, Tibet is more fashionable. After this tragedy China will be seen with milder eyes and Chinese authorities will have shown the human face of this country and shown, for the first time, an event without hiding it behind top secret files.

If we were in Italy, we would be talking already about whose fault all this devastation was, who will have to pay, why this ever happened and, inevitably, our politicians would be blaming each other in the oldest and most coward of the Italian games. In China despite dams that are cracking, lakes that are going to burst the artificial banks and new buildings collapsed like origami paper, everybody is concentrating on the rescue effort and it is not known whether some heads will fall or everything will be kept quiet.

Beijing 2008 will not be the same after all tragedies occurring this year. China will not be brought to its knees because the damages, around 9.5 billion dollars so far, can be well absorbed by the economy but the Chinese soul will be scarred forever. China will not be the same and all tragedies that will come will be broadcast until a sense of nausea will get the people and nobody will take care anymore of future tsunamis earthquakes or terrorists attacks. Because the step from virginity to becoming a slut is very very close and the skin hardens when one gets hit constantly.

Welcome to the Western World, Me Old China!

A note: to someone's eyes this blog might seem as irreverent or perhaps worse. This is not its spirit. This blog is just a fair analysis of what is going on in the mind of those who have been strongly shocked by the images being broadcast and what will happen if other tragedies will strike again. So, not a criticism towards China but just some considerations about how media can take a tragedy and transform it into an event.

Italian Disinformation about China

This is an article published on Corriere della Sera:




Le tv cinesi e il terremoto non censurato
Sulla televisione di Stato ore e ore di diretta sul sisma. Al contrario di quanto avvenuto per il Tibet e la fiaccola




It says:




Chinese TV and the earthquake exempted by the censorship
Hours and hours of Live broadcast on the State TV. Opposite to what happened about Tibet and the Olympic Torch.




I spare you from reading the article of this "young student" in China. Yes, I a young student. I have been writing many times to the Corriere della Sera, even to contradict their correspondent from Beijng which is absolutely a partisan and I really think that if he was writing about the States what he writes about China, the Administration would have kicked him out. the guy's name is Cavallara.




Mr. Alessio Potocco, this young student I am sure has much better to do than watching TV, exactly like the guy from Shanghai that wrote about CCTV ignoring completely the "Torch" events.




I frankly find rather disgusting this one sided information and I am the first one to admit that until I came to live in China I thought that the West was too lenient towards Beijing.




In the aftermath of Tienanmen, I thought that China should have been expelled by the UN, instead we, the West, forgave them for our own sake.




Then we started using China for our own purposes, amongst which selling them our public debt, make them produce cheap stuff so that we can buy them back at the usual price but with the increased profit. But when the Chinese decided to produce their own stuff, common people in the Western world were happy for the cheap stuff and those that were making a fortune ripping us off started getting annoyed and cry to get China's product hit by heavy duties.




What they don't say is that we are buying cheap stuff but, over here, they are buying BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Japanese cars like mad! During my trip in Europe I have been shopping at C&A while my Chinese colleagues have been at LV, Gucci and Hugo Boss...




So, once again, let's stop, once and for all with all this crap! I will not read anymore the Corriere della Sera, for sure, as all my emails in disagreement with what these "young students" write are always ignored.




Instead of this crap, let's think that, probably, 50,000 people have died in this tragedy that adds up to the other tragedy of January and epidemic and mine accidents and train crashes.




China is going through a tough period by act of Gods and by the excessive growth that makes of it a Giant with small feet. All these kind of behaviours from European media and politician makes China and the Chinese more and more distant by the West and when a taxi driver asks me "why do you hate us?" I will do what I used to reply when people were asking me "How can you have a PM like Berlusconi?". I will reply that we are all indoctrinated by the media and while we think that we hold a remote control and change channel, we are those that are changed by the TV and the media.




But I can tell, as well, that when people used to laugh at me and at Italy because of Berlusconi and the various scandals, I reached a point that I felt really offended and I reacted defending him and those who voted him.




This is what it happening in China: people might not be so soft towards their politicians but the strong racism against China as a whole country is compacting the population and their political class.




Our "young student" from Beijing closes his article saying that the fact of giving news Realtime and telling the truth is a general rehearse for the Olympic Games! While I really think that the young student is getting ready to have a nice career in the Italian journalism world, made of feet lickers and sponsored family brats.




我爱中国人民! And I dislike Westerners more and more...


http://www.tibetinfor.com.cn/english/reports/hotspot/autonomy_004.htm


The Italian Foreign minister, Mr. Frattini, has declared that Italy favours Tibet Autonomy but has no intention of meeting the Dalai Lama and upset "our Chinese friends".


This is a reasonable, pity that Tibet benefits of certain degree of autonomy in China like many other Chinese provinces. Plus the most incredibile thing is that Italy supports the ban on weapon export to China imposed after Tienanmen events but he talks about "Chinese Friends" What a Frigging Hypocrit he is!


I would like to know what the requests of Tibetans are in terms of autonomy. I made a search on the net, not an in-depth one, to be honest.


And I found via google on the listing of the Radical Party (the party that has ideas closest to mine, http://www.radicalparty.org/monitor/tibetan_bulletin.htm) a sentence like this "Currently the Tibetan government is examining the option of some form of autonomy for Tibet and hopes to engage the Chinese government in negotiations in ...".


Well, I would recommend to those that are against the autonomy of Corsica, Northern Italy, Basque Territories, to take a look at this page http://www.tibetinfor.com.cn/english/reports/hotspot/autonomy_004.htm . You will realise that the autonomy they have already in Tibet is much more than any other autonomous region in Europe.

China, the useful idiot...

I read on an Italian forum this article, placed by someone who writes there. It talks about China. The Article is here: http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/showthread.php?t=891184

This person affirms that since China entered the World market we have assisted to some noticeable unbalances.

I don’t know where our friend has been for the last twenty years but we have seen real unbalances for many years and actually since China has been around it has been the propeller of the world economy coming to help the economies more than mining them. The crisis we are assisting has got nothing to do with China, actually China is the one suffering for the American disgraces. He (or she) talks about the CNY USD pegging as the big damage to the world economy. I would like to remind this writer that China hasn’t got the currency pegged anymore and that revaluing the Yuan against the greenback it’s devaluing the amount of dollars in their hand and reducing their income from exports. Furthermore a dollarised economy served well America until the day before yesterday. So even claiming that the range was unfair is another lie.

Another false allegation is the one where it says that China is exchanging the cumulated funds from export into other currencies. I would really like to understand how people think the export works.

Let’s say I am an Italian exporter. I sell condoms to the States that pay back in USD. I keep these dollars, I give them to my bank and I ask them to convert them into GBP, for example? Just because the GBP has a better outlook?

Is this the best that Italian financial culture can express? Is it China, as State, exporting goods or are companies doing that? Where are Chinese buying their raw material from and how do they pay for them, in which currency? Do they really invest their money into foreign currencies? Or perhaps foreign shares?

I frankly think that too much TV is not good for anyone and when the TV is pure propaganda because we like to find some faults in the others, I think that we are really at a paradox.

Nice to know, as well, that the internal consumptions are at embryonic level. It means that our friend has some data available about it. Probably his sources are different from the most official ones…

Let’s forget about the rest because it’s typical small talks proving that there is still a lot to do to make people understand that disinformation is more dangerous than the wars he sees in act.

I really wish people would study before making fool of themselves and, to be very honest, I wouldn’t even publish my data to prove that everything said in that post is bullshit. I think that the person who wrote that post knows what he says and perhaps he will illuminate us with some facts, rather than words.

Recession, at last!

Ladies and Gentlemen, after so many announcements by those who make of tarots their main meter of judgement for economic forecasts, the US recession is now near. Just to keep up with those who like numbers I would say that chances are now around 75%.

There are still doubts about the possible length of it but I think that thanks to the Asian economies, China first, it might be not as long as many fear. The kind of recession I can see is a technical one, not the tragedy a few foresee. It will impact the economies of Europe and China but concerning the latter I think that it will just a shaving off part of the forecast growth by a max 2% as internal consumption in Mainland China is still going up. Europe? Well... Eyes on Germany. As far as Italy is concerned the recession would mean nothing as we are a pretty conservative (and shameless) country showing always very contained growths (if any). So, nothing to fear about it. We normally fall from the first step of the ladder but our politicians tend to blame recessions to cover their helpless inability in running the country,

So whose fault is this recession to come? Fed, Banks, White House, Americans? The choice is wide and they all have their part of blame but I point my finger at the futility and the unjustified growth of economies since 2001. There has been a growth based on nothing. Shares values have been inflated, housing costs incredibly high thanks to bank who didn't know what to do with their money... the same way we created the Asian crisis we have created this one. One of the few times events repeat themselves. Unfortunately, even this time will be the less wealthy ones to pay for it.

Heads down! I am sure we will come out early as banks have already cleared their rubbish bins with the excuse of subprime crisis, but in a smarted way Neapolitans do these days. Without showing that subprime is only part of the problem.

Tata from cold and white Beijing!


PS - I have been asked why I am now convinced that we are close to recession while until my last intervention I was not so in line with others... Simple... there is an article I published here where it explains the main variables in the dynamic of economic growth. Some of those parameters are no longer signalling positive or neutral economical pattern. That is one answer. Second answer. The package that the White House is putting in place to avoid recession is far too little and too late. This time Americans have been hit badly with the housing crisis and does he, the President, really think that giving 800 dollars to each American tax payer would make the economy grow? Does he really think that with 800 dollars he can avoid a period of negative gowth due to debts more than consumer crisis? I am sure that even the Americans will be paying off a bit of a debt or putting them in their bank account...

The other consideration concerns the elections... Do we really think that the congress will pass a package that, if it works, will be added to the incumbent president? Let's not forget that the congress is in the hands of the opposition...

Last and not least... Bush's surprise trip in the Middle East, especially the one in Saudi Arabia. After a period of cold relationship, all of a sudden Bush seemed to be his father and show recognition and friendship to the Saudi family. It's obvious that the trip there has been a business journey to close some deals and get some oil on the cheappy. coincidentally, Gordon Brown has been seen around here asking for money. Yes, he has told Beijing that Britain welcomes Sovereign Funds... And that is another sign...

But the main factor is... the data. the figures show a slowdown and I wouldnt' be surprised if we are already in a recession. And, panic is doing the rest... Panic, excessive panic can lead to complete loss of confidence. And we are at that stage

BREAKING NEWS
On Jan 22nd Fed cuts discount rate and Fed Funds rates by 3/4%... We can now wait for BoE and ecb... While something will certainly come from PRC Central Bank. I am sure that the market will not give a toss about it...

Is China holding or selling its U.S. Treasuries?

A very interesting article from the IHT.

By Floyd Norris

Saturday, December 22, 2007

For the past three years, China has been the financier that kept the American government well-funded. In 2004, it bought a fifth of the U.S. Treasury securities issued, a proportion that rose to 30 percent in 2005 and to 36 percent in 2006.

But according to U.S. government figures, in 2007 China has reversed course and become a net seller of Treasury securities. The U.S. Treasury said this week that China had $388 billion of Treasury bonds at the end of October, or $10 billion less than it had at the end of 2006.

Those sales of Treasuries, if the American estimates are correct, have come during a year when the dollar has been weak against most currencies, and would be consistent with China diversifying its investments into other currencies.

But the figures may be misleading.

For one thing, other Treasury estimates show that the Chinese are still increasing their holdings of bonds issued by American agencies, like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and by American companies. But even including those purchases, the rate of increase of Chinese holdings of dollar-based securities seems to have eased off.

The other problem is that the Treasury has a history of getting these numbers wrong, and then fixing them up many months later.

The initial estimates are based on reports of transactions in securities, and those involving long-term securities, like Treasury bonds and notes, reflect only the initial buyer. So if China bought Treasury securities through a financial intermediary in Britain or Hong Kong, the sale might be attributed to those areas.

Each June, the Treasury does a survey of actual holdings, and revises its previous estimates. The survey from June 2007 will be incorporated in the data in February. A year earlier, the June 2006 figure was revised up by $62 billion, and a similar revision could come this year.

If so, that would reduce but not erase the trend toward China owning fewer Treasury securities. That country is running a huge trade surplus that brings in billions of dollars each month, and its options are limited.

It may need to buy a large amount of dollar-denominated investments to keep the Chinese currency from rising too far against the dollar, but those investments do not have to be Treasuries.

This week China invested $5 billion in Morgan Stanley, an investment bank that needed to raise capital.

Over all, foreigners continue to finance the American government deficit, with their Treasury holdings rising $194.7 billion during the first 10 months of the year, more than the $166 billion increase in the amount of Treasury securities held by the public.

Since January 2001, when President George W. Bush took office, the amount of debt issued to the public has risen by $1.7 trillion, with $1.3 trillion of that increase being taken by foreigners, according to the Treasury estimates.

Of that, the increase for China was $327 billion, about a fourth of the foreign total.

China, US, Kyoto, the petrol and the Ozone Layer…

Until a few years ago, except for a very few people worried about the environment and being pointed at bloody lunatics or catastrophists, nobody used to give a toss about the health of our planet.

Dubya* was drilling Alaska, Australia was polluting the air with its cows’ farts, Europe was compromising with the Green Parties a bit here and there but, effectively, before Kyoto (and even after) nobody has really given a shit about the planet’s health.

The little atolls in the Pacific were complaining about the end being nigh (for them), some islands being abandoned after the exploitation of minerals had made them unlivable. Mangroves forests reducing more and more and not protecting places from high tides and so on…Anyway… We, in Europe and in America couldn’t care less.

In the meantime China was growing and following the Confucian principles that man can control nature opposed to the Taoist approach, thanks to the support given to Confucius by the local Communist Party, this country started exploiting more and more… Buying minerals, energy, metals… you name it! They were buying, diverting rivers, flooding villages with population in the millions just to grow…

Funny enough until China came on the picture nobody had cared about the environment. Our arrogance made us think that they would have never grown, especially under a Communist regime like Beijing’s one. We were used to the Asian Tigers that were on our side anyway and would not have survived without us… Well the Asian Mammoth was frozen in a cryogenic state, just waiting to wake up when nobody would have expected it…

The first signs were not seen. China buying steel making factories from Europe and US and move them to China and create cities out of nothing… The sew covers started disappearing from the streets a bit everywhere in Europe and America and so the copper… all directed to China or to the market where prices were going up. The Us saw their Tbills and bonds flying toward the Great Wall from Wall Street and felt that China was going to be domesticated like any other country in the world that has come out of communism… Well well… Things didn’t go that way… not precisely…

Now we have a super power that has created wealth and is putting in serious troubles the rest of the world that is running out of ideas, resources and energies… the old world that thought to be the ultimate system, the closest to perfection mankind could think of. Communism failed were Capitalism succeeded… nobody thought ones that there could have been another form of ruling that could have been successful at the point of impoverish the richest countries. If not economically, certainly socially. With a sense of defeat… the same one that communists must have felt when the Berlin Wall collapsed at the end of 80’s.

The neo liberals’ defeats in Argentina opened the road to a new leftist movement in Latin America and the current governments ruling that subcontinent seem to be in good health and do not show signs of tiredness at the moment. Even Lula’s Brazil performed a miracle (not for me) when he managed to pay back the IMF (the biggest loser in this moment) all the outstanding debts and outperforming any liberal or capitalist government ever ruled in Brazil… Brazil with the IMF was destined to follow Argentina’s steps into chaos…

The world is changing, the world is becoming more and more aware of the dangers we are heading towards. Even in the States, Governor Schwarzenegger and other States and Cities have embraced the Kyoto philosophy while Dubya is now taking a two sabbatical years to verify whether America is going to adopt some measures as a Nation to reduce the sufferance of the Nature. Australia has just switched to Kyoto after years of draught and farmers reduced to misery and hundreds of thousands of cows downed for the lack of water.

China is setting a new standard… China is showing how bad the world can go if we don’t do anything to protect the environment. China has been like a computer simulation where you can run 10 20 100 years in a few seconds and see the effect of cigarettes on your lungs or of a million cows on the CO2 in the atmosphere…

China has become the mother of all computers simulators…

But this doesn’t justify by itself the change in approach. The true reason is that China has gained far too much power and when a new player gets better than the old ones, the old players tend to change the rules but, this is a game that cannot be won by the old players unless they have enough money to continue playing… And, frankly, I do not see how, placing China in the WTO (a useless organization discredited by the US protectionist behaviors since it was created) would have pushed China to play by the rules. Uncle Sam didn't abide by the rules and preferred, and still prefers, paying fines rather than play fairly... But now China has got the money and the position of the US, still very much on the saddle though, is not as safe as it used to be. At those offering prices even Europe could become a bigger consumer market than currently is and run a bit behind China bootlicking...

So, in a period of credit crisis we are giving more and more power to those countries that have been seen for decades as the problem of the world, China and the Arabs on top of the list, while we are becoming more and more dependent on them, financially and economically, and using the climate changes as an excuse to stop their power but, I am afraid, it’s far too late… the Chinese are in our houses already. They are on our children under the form of shoes and clothes, they are in their bags and they even are between you and your sex partner when in the few moments of peace you have, you enjoy some intimate moments… enjoy them, till they last…


*Seems rather unbelievable that the words below are from the same man that until recently wouldn't care less about the environmental issues. Read on...
"On Wednesday morning, Bush signed into law a major energy bill that cleared the House on Tuesday. It will require automakers to increase vehicle fuel efficiency by 40 percent, to an average 35 miles per gallon by 2020. It also will greatly increase production of ethanol, the fuel derived from switchgrass and other plant material.
The president, in a ceremony at the Energy Department, called the bill a major step toward "reducing our dependence on oil, fighting global climate change, expanding the production of renewable fuels" and creating a cleaner country with greater fuel security. The House passed the bill by a 314-100 vote". (IHT - 20 December 2007 )